China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). Adding to that, some of these hubs house core elements of critical infrastructure, including major defence installations (among them bases and headquarters). Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. *chuckle*. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. Sydney: Murdoch Press. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. The World Economy. This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. Agree with all comments . CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. [8] Gabriel Kolko. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. Taiwanese . Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. Try again. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. ADM's Defence Industry Guide is published in print edition every 6 months. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. But the nation is not in a good place. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. [9] Ezra Vogel. Based on history, a war is in the making. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been reducing over the millenia. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. [6] Paul Monk. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. New weapons systems are becoming very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the difficulty of holding another country. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. (including Australia). Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. 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This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. Read more. [13] James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural. Australia cut. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. Dr Strobe Driver reports. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. [10] Angus Madisson. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. And correspondingly, where to place the US? Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258. Another Century of War? One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? As always you can unsubscribe at any time. The End of History and the Last Man. [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. China to INVADE Australia? For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. The relative ease of attacking mainland Australia comes from the geographical distribution of our major industrial and population centres, which are located within Australias littoral. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. It saddens me that our governments are so imbecilic that they cannot see past their current term or the noses on their faces and are selling out future generations. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. Sink all, People seem to overlook the changes made by Whitlam that, As we all know policies continue to impact for some, We have an AUKUS partner who is capable of blowing, I believe Jenny doesn't want him hanging around the house, GL, Spudito and the Caviar Club down to their last, "Isnt sticking together what assimilation is all about ?" great commentary, thankyou for your input one and all. [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. 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